Where Deals Are Won or Lost
The meaty one. The math other people sell a $2,000 course on — taught here for nothing.
Deals are usually killed by tiny assumptions wearing nice clothes.
Optional progress lives on this browser. No account, no gate.
Investors who want to check the math sponsors hope nobody checks.
You stop nodding at projections and start interrogating them.
Move from rent roll to NOI to cap rate to stress test. No romance. Just the math.
Find the number that makes the deal fall over.
The model is not a truth machine. It is a map of assumptions. Your job is to find which assumption is carrying too much weight.
- Trace rent to the rent roll
- Rebuild NOI
- Stress debt service
- Move the exit cap
Find the assumption that breaks first.
Use these first when the spreadsheet looks like a priest wrote it.
The math sponsors hope you skim.
Rent, NOI, cap rates, debt, exits, and stress tests — the boring places truth hides.
Build the income engine
Rent roll, vacancy, concessions, expenses, NOI, and the first places optimism hides.
- 02 The underwriting mindset: conservative wins Rebuild
- 03 Deal analysis, start to finish Check
- 04 Gross potential rent & the rent roll Stress
- 05 Loss-to-lease, vacancy, concessions, bad debt Verify
- 06 Effective gross income Model
- 07 Operating expenses — the full breakdown Test
- 08 The expense ratio & what "good" looks like Rebuild
- 10 Cap rate, without the jargon Check
- 11 How cap rates move value (the scary math) Stress
- 12 Cap-rate compression & expansion Verify
- 13 Cash-on-cash return Model
Translate value and returns
Cap rates, cash-on-cash, IRR, equity multiple, and the danger of pretty outputs.
- 14 IRR — finally explained clearly Check
- 15 Equity multiple Stress
- 16 IRR vs equity multiple vs cash-on-cash — which matters when Verify
- 17 DSCR (debt service coverage ratio) Model
- 18 The pro forma — reading the projection Test
- 19 T-12 and T-3 — trailing financials Rebuild
- 20 Rent comps & how to pull them Check
- 21 Sales comps Stress
- 22 "As-is" vs "stabilized" value Verify
- 23 Forced-appreciation math (the value-add engine) Model
- 24 Underwriting the value-add: reno budgets & rent premiums Test
Break the assumptions
Debt, comps, reserves, stress tests, exit caps, and the sponsor numbers worth poking.
- 25 Bad debt & economic vacancy assumptions Stress
- 26 Exit cap-rate assumptions (where sponsors get optimistic) Verify
- 27 Rent-growth assumptions — realistic vs fantasy Model
- 28 Reserves — why you need them Test
- 29 Stress testing & sensitivity analysis Rebuild
- 30 Break-even occupancy Check
- 31 The 1% rule, 50% rule & napkin tests Stress
- 32 Build your first underwriting model (spreadsheet walkthrough) Verify
- 33 Underwrite a deal someone sent you (red-flag hunt) Model
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