Compound-growth / snowball visualizer
Compounding works when discipline survives taxes, reserves, and boredom.
The first number is only the beginning.
The chart will name the assumption carrying the most weight once the model runs.
| Case | Result | What moved |
|---|
What return is actually reasonable?
Linear return fantasy
Smooth annual returns are a teaching simplification, not market behavior.
What this number is really saying
Time helps money, but behavior keeps it in the game. The spreadsheet assumes you do not sabotage yourself.
The assumption to attack
Lower returns, missed contributions, taxes, and liquidity needs. The future value number is fragile if discipline is fake.
What the math is ignoring
Volatility, tax drag, fees, illiquidity, and sequence of returns.
Headline, stress, proof.
- Start with the headline result.It names the current modeled answer, not the decision.
- Compare the stress cases.The scenario strip shows which assumption makes the answer fragile.
- Use the ledger as a diligence list.Every input should map back to a document, invoice, statement, term sheet, or named assumption.
Documents before confidence.
Actual contribution behavior, fees, taxes, liquidity needs, account statements, and the sequence risk the smooth model ignores.
Stress before trust
- Linear return fantasy
- Ignoring taxes
- Assuming contribution discipline
Make the model answer.
- What return is actually reasonable?
- What fees or taxes reduce it?
- Can you keep contributing when life gets expensive?
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