Returns lab
Syndication returns calculator
Projected returns are not truth. They are a confession of assumptions.
Change the number
What the math says Metric - Waiting on inputs. Metric - Waiting on inputs. Metric - Waiting on inputs. Metric - Waiting on inputs.
The first number is only the beginning.
Cash distributions - Sale profit - Original capital -
The chart will name the assumption carrying the most weight once the model runs.
Scenario check
| Case | Result | What moved |
|---|
Assumption ledger
Assumption coach Move an input to see what assumption is carrying the story.
What has to happen for the sale profit to exist?
Equity multiple without timing
No calculator can promise distributions, refinance proceeds, sale price, taxes, or timing. This is a pressure test.
What this number is really saying
This separates cash along the way from money at exit. Sponsors love one blended return story because it sounds cleaner. Investors need to see the moving parts.
The assumption to attack
Cut the cash yield, extend the hold, reduce the sale profit, and watch the story lose its tuxedo. If one assumption carries the whole deal, you found the dependency.
What the math is ignoring
Capital calls, taxes, paused distributions, refinance timing, sponsor fees, and whether the buyer at exit exists at the price the model wants.
Headline, stress, proof.
- Start with the headline result.It names the current modeled answer, not the decision.
- Compare the stress cases.The scenario strip shows which assumption makes the answer fragile.
- Use the ledger as a diligence list.Every input should map back to a document, invoice, statement, term sheet, or named assumption.
Documents before confidence.
Sponsor model, OM, operating agreement, distribution history, reserve policy, and the exact exit assumptions.
Stress before trust
- Equity multiple without timing
- IRR without total dollars
- Sale profit treated like rent
Make the model answer.
- What has to happen for the sale profit to exist?
- What happens if distributions pause for a year?
- Where is the reserve for the ugly month?
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