Library / Underwriting & Deal Analysis Wing 03 · Lesson 20 · ~3 min

Rent comps and how to pull them

A rent comp is a witness for future rent. If the unit, condition, concession, or date does not match, impeach the witness.

Check the assumption → Wing index →
Read with a pencil

Circle the assumption doing the most work. That is usually where the deal is asking for trust.

Rent comps are comparable units used to judge what rent a property might achieve.

That definition leaves room for mischief. The renovated building across the highway is technically nearby. It can also have a different floorplan, newer amenities, six weeks free, and no business testifying about the rent in your tired unit with old cabinets.

A nearby address is not enough. The tenant has to see a real substitute.

Qualify the witness

FactorWhy it matters
DistanceRent is local before it is theoretical
Unit typeOne-bedrooms do not prove two-bedroom rents
Renovation levelGranite is not the same as paint
Vintage and amenitiesTenants compare lived experience
ConcessionsEffective rent may be lower than asking rent
Date signedOld comps can stale faster than milk

Asking rents are leads. Signed leases are evidence. Recent signed leases at the subject property are stronger evidence still because they already survived the exact location, unit, leasing team, and resident decision you are underwriting.

Put the $1,550 claim in a lineup

Suppose the model assumes renovated two-bedrooms will rent for $1,550.

PropertyDistanceUnitConditionAsking rentConcessionEffective rent
Subject current0 mi2x1Classic$1,275$0$1,275
Comp A0.4 mi2x1Light reno$1,425$0$1,425
Comp B0.8 mi2x2Full reno$1,650$100/mo$1,550
Comp C1.2 mi2x1Full reno$1,500$0$1,500

The $1,550 assumption might be possible. Comp B does not prove it alone. It has a different layout and a concession that drags a $1,650 asking rent down to $1,550 effective rent. Same number. Different testimony.

Pull comps like the rent matters

Do not sort a listing site from highest rent to lowest and stop when the model feels vindicated. For every candidate comp:

  • Record the survey date, distance, unit type, square footage, condition, amenities, and availability.
  • Call or otherwise verify the asking rent, active concessions, fees, and lease term.
  • Calculate effective rent after concessions.
  • Note whether the number is an asking rent, an application, or a signed lease.
  • Save the evidence so the comp can be checked again later.

Then ask the useful question: would a tenant standing in the subject unit choose this property instead, and why? If the answer depends on ignoring the extra bathroom, newer finish, or free rent, the comp has already contradicted itself.

Make three pieces of evidence agree

For each rent premium, require at least three comps:

Comp typeEvidence
Same-property leaseRecent signed lease after similar renovation
Nearby competitorSame unit type and similar finish
Conservative fallbackRent that should be achievable if the top comp is too aggressive

Underwrite the fallback rent. If the plan works only at the top comp, you do not have a rent range. You have a favorite witness.

Adjust the concession yourself

Pull the comps yourself and reduce asking rent for concessions. Asking rent without free weeks, fees, and lease term is half a sentence presented as a verdict.

Write the fallback rent beside the model rent and calculate the effect on revenue. That dollar difference is the price of being wrong about the comp set. Make the deal carry it before you do.

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